Update: 24.10

Dear L.,

so let´s start project “hindsight bias” and have a look at possible promising setups for the week and especially today.

However first let us just see how nicely two patterns which started on Friday have played out yesterday.

Both LRTTF and…

LRTTF 2.png

TITXF (remember my poor trade a week ago) perfectly confirmed their OTC breakout pattern. They gapped up and spiked in the morning.

TITXF

Today, IMMY may be interesting to watch. This spiked big time last week but has been loosing moderately for the past two days. Given the fact, that it could not hold its gains even on day one of the spike and additionally liquidity has dried up this is not the optimal setup. However, it may offer a small bounce play opportunity when selling of down to the $1.75 level.

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Similarly, NEOT may bounce today or tomorrow. There seems to be rather strong support in the $1 area. After four red days in a row, I would watch this for a morning squeeze.
Unbenannt

Finally, for the past weeks SRAX has been able to squeeze shorts over and over again. I expect SRAX to be able to squeeze again this week, most likely not today yet though.

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Let´s see if the action confirms these setups.

Best,

Nils

CAPR & TITXF

Dear L.,

The last two weeks have been a little busy and I haven´t had a lot of time to trade. Nevertheless, I wanted to publish this post to write about my last two loosing (Alas!) trades.

The first trade was on OTC stock TITXF. I was looking for the OTC breakout play and entered with a small position size just below resistance at 27.5 cents on 09.10. TITXF did not break out that day and I decided to hold overnight. However, the next morning there was quite some selling pressure and I threw in the towels at 25.4 cents.

Just yesterday TITXF finally did break out and moved from 26 cents to 34 cents!

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The second stock I did trade on 10.10 was once more CAPR and once more I lost trading the bounce play. I bought this after five consecutive red days close to support at $2.60 when it seemed to be ready for a bounce. Well, it turns out it was not ready (it would do so the next day) and I stopped out at $2.53.

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Well, this is pretty much it for this week. The last weeks´ performance has made me thinking and I realized a few things. I have come to realize that it is hard, if not impossible, to day trade and attend classes at the same time. There has to be prioritization and full commitment when trying to “master” or at least become good at something like trading. At the same time, reading Taleb´s “Black Swan” for the second time has made me aware of how much hindsight bias my trading has been based of. Thus, in the time to come I will be trading less. At the same time I am planning to post regularly (daily) watchlists for the next trading day, clearly communicating my expectations and possible trading plan.

Let´s see how this works out.

Best,

Nils

Weekly Recap: 02.10-07.10

Dear L.,

it has been an interesting week. There were many opportunities and I traded a little, gained some, lost some and learned a few lessons.

Monday – 02.10

Monday was a very active day with many stocks going crazy.

ECYT went from $1.4 to $3.7 on positive news. The stock topped on Tuesday at $6.55!

ECYT

Additionally DRYS squeezed once more from the 2.30s to $2.85.

DRYS - 4.png

So what about my FNMA breakout play from Friday? Well, it worked out to some extent. At the market open, FNMA dipped a little bit but finally found support and spiked. I got a little impatient, selling my position at $3.08 for a small gain. I would have taken off only half of my position but due to my small position size this was not feasible. It turns out that FNMA went to $3.23 on Monday and to a high of $3.28 on Tuesday

FNMA

Tuesday – 03.10.2017

On Monday there was another OTC breakout, continuing its move on Tuesday. Even though it was on my watchlist I somehow missed this move. NSRPF on Monday broke out at $5.5, spiking to almost $7 on Tuesday. NSRPF - 5.png

Similarly, TWMJF broke out on Monday at $8.8. It went to $9.4 on Tuesday and reached a high of $10.51 on Friday.

TWMJF.png

On the NASDAQ WPCS squeezed from the 1.60s to $1.86 in a few minutes.

WPCS.png

And then there was another crazy mover. CLSN went from $1.5 to $6 on an announcement of positive research data.

CLSN.png

Similarly, KOOL almost doubled, going from $3.6 to a high of $6.44. This move was caused by a mere announcement of patent recognition. So much about market efficiency.

KOOL.png

Wednesday – 04.10

On Wednesday the OTC breakout week continued. GLNNF broke out at 40 cents. I entered at this price with a small position size due to limited liquidity. After buyers and sellers had fought at the breakout level for a few hours, GLNNF spiked in the afternoon to around 48 cents. There, at 48.5 cents I sold have my position  and planned to hold the other half overnight. However, I got greedy and when GLNNF showed some weakness I sold the other half of my shares at 47 cents. The stock closed a little lower but went to 67 cents on Thursday. It even went to as high as 95 cents on Thursday. So my 20% gain does not seem that good compared to a 100%+ gain. Despite the opportunity for doubling my capital I am ok with taking advantage only of a part of the move. However, I have to criticize myself for not following my plan and holding the second half of my position overnight.

GLNNF - 2.png

Thursday –  05.10

I am not 100% certain about how to judge my trading on Thursday. I decided to trade CAPR. This had been one of the crazy runners during the previous week and I thought it may be due for a bounce. In the morning it sold off, before coming back to the opening level. This level was rejected but CAPR found support just below this level and above the volume weighted average price (VWAP). The action looked good and I bought some shares with a small position size at $3.07. Well, it did not work out. CAPR shortly thereafter lost buyers, sold off and I got stopped out at $2.95. I still think it was ok to enter this trade but I have to admit that it was not a setup that I want to concentrate on at the moment.

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Friday – 06.10

On Friday I finally tried to trade the bounce play. MTBC had been selling off after some crazy price action in the beginning of the week. This company was in the back of my mind from earlier this year when MTBC trapped short sellers for many days in a row. During this time shorts got squeezed when PR after PR was released. So given the price action I thought that both a bounce was due and maybe a press release was to be expected.

At the open MTBC sold off and then came back. The bounce play setup seemed to materialize and I entered at $2.55. I was a little early as it turns out and MTBC showed some weakness before grinding higher. Then however, there was a small squeeze and the stock went to $2.8. I sold my shares at $2.75 when the tape indicated a reversal. The sale was quite good. So what is the other huge spike that you can see on the chart? Well, it turns out that MTBC did release another PR later in the day. The stock spiked from $2.5 to $3.5 on some mediocre news on positive customer feedback – too bad I was out already at this point.

MTBC 2.png

It was an interesting week.

Let´s see what the next one brings along.

Best,

Nils

 

 

The Games Gotta Continue

Dear L.,

this week has shown once more that it is not as easy as it seems. There were incredible opportunities, but every trade which I made seems to have taught me the wrong lessons.

But let us have a look at the weeks.

Monday – 25.09

On Monday, I had some nice setups on my watchlist. Unfortunately, uni-lessons took longer than expected. Thus, I missed these opportunities (which of course does not mean that I would have been able to take them).

For the rebound setup SPI nicely squeezed from 11.5 cents to 15 cents.

SPI 5.png

SDRL went from 39 cents to 43 cents…

SDRL 2.png

and even WAC went from 60 cents to almost 70 cents.

WAC.png

Let´s now have a look at the OTC stocks on Monday. Friday´s breakout GLNNF actually did not perform as predicted by me. Contrary to the breakout pattern, it did not gap up, failed the morning spike and subsequently sold off pretty heavily.

GLNNF.png

And then there was the trade which I  actually did exucute. NSRPF, another OTC stock, had broken out earlier during the day. In the afternoon it showed some weakness, selling off back to the breakout level again. I took this opportunity to buy the dip at $4.6. Here I have to mention that NSRPF is not a very liquid stock and at some points minutes would pass without an occurring trade. However, NSRPF directly moved in my direction and followed a positive trend. It went as high as $4.8. The pattern seemed to work and I was ready to give NSRPF a lot of room, putting my stop below $4.6. Then however, at $4.8 something very weird happened on Level2. From one moment to the next, the action turned from supper bullish to super bearish. Buyers completely disappeared at the $4.8 level and NSRPF fell to $4.7. This by itself would not have been a problem, but given the bad liquidity I feared a complete crash. Long story short – I panicked and sold for a minuscule gain at $4.72. What happened afterwards? NSRPF directly ripped and went as high as $5.4 – yeah $5.4!

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Another stock breaking out nicely on Monday was IMLFF. From the breakout level at 37 cents, this went to as high as 45 cents on Tuesday.

IMLFF.png

Tuesday 26.09.2017

And here we are on Tuesday and the start of my loosing streak. What I was watching on Tuesday was ARDM, one of the hot stocks of the week. Given the chart setup I thought that it could squeeze shorts a little bit. At the open it had a huge red candle. I bought it then on the uptrend at $3.29. ARDM went to the crucial high of the day at $3.35. This is were one could see the same thing which was present in my other loosing trades too. Huge sell orders came in and pushed ARDM down again. Finally, I got stopped out at $3.20.

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And what happened then? Later in the day ARDM did break out and squeezed to $4.2!

ARDM.png

Wednesday – 27.09.2017

On Wednesday SRAX was the one I played, once more looking for the bounce. I bought SRAX close to the high of the day at $2.21. It all looked quite good and SRAX shortly squeezed to $2.3. Once more at this point a huge wall of sellers (short sellers I suppose) showed up. SRAX sold off, attempted the $2.3 level once more, failed and I got stopped out at $2.16. Given the fact that I was up comfortably at the $2.3 level, this loss was kind off painful.

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Just to mention it, NETE had a very nice red to green move on Wednesday.

NETE.png

Thursday – 28.09.2017

And then there was Thursday. Buff. Well, what can I say. On Thursday I traded INPX which led me to a loosing streak of three trades in a row. INPX had sold off quite heavily on Wednesday and I was looking for the bounce play. The open was perfect. INPX selling off and then grinding up. I entered at just under 39 cents. It all looked good and INPX grinded higher and higher. At this point the 37.5 cents level had held very nicely as support. Thus, I increased my stop to 37 cents. INPX traded at 39 cents, testing the high of the day. Huge sell order showed up on level two but INPX held steady. Then it happend. For the blink of a second, all buy orders above 37 cents disappeared, INPX crashed, I got stopped out and INPX went back to 39 cents. All this took less than a second. I have already heard about market makers bringing the price to specific price levels in order to trigger stop loss orders. This is what seems to have happened here and I will have to put mental stops in the future rather than hard stops.

Unbenannt

Well, this was my pretty rough week. On Friday I was planning to take a break but did end up watching the markets. Once more, some bounce plays were on my watchlist. The pattern in the end was confirmed but the intraday price action was difficult and I did not end up trading the setups.

NETE went from the lo 70 cent area to $1…

NETE 2.png

SRAX squeezed from $1.8 to $2.5…

SRAX 2.png

And Itus had a very nice short squeeze in the afternoon too. After breaking VWAP at $3.28 it squeezed to $3.85.

ITUS 4.png

Finally, towards the end of the day I did enter another trade. Even Though I did not feel compelled to trade I decided to take advantage of this nice setup. FNMA has been trending towards the crucial $3 mark for some days. Close to market close I entered with a small position size at $2.98. FNMA did reach $3 various times before the bell rang but sellers defended this level pretty heavily and we have to see if it can break on Monday.

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I have to take the right lessons out of this week. But I have to admit that it is not easy since I did trade “good setups” (at least I had thought so) but I still ended up loosing quite some money. Maybe I have to ask myself if I did overtrade throughout the week.

Let´s see for the next week.

Best,

Nils